Eastern Ukraine & NATO
If he had a plan to take back Crimea and Ukraine, it seems strange that he did not do what he wanted, having mobilized his generals and military for the Crimea move. It looks as though he was nervous and hesitant and only made a limited move.
Since his Crimea move the Ukraine has upgraded its military capability to some extent. Larger ground troops armed with the Israeli Tavor Bullpup. While this will give the Ukraine a fighting chance, it really only amounts to the opportunity for Russian airpower to put into effect their Syrian striker seasoned pilots to kill easily identifiable clean uniforms from above which will amount to more dead democratically inclined young Ukrainians. Could that have been Putin’s plan all along?
Ten years before the start of the second world war, it was well known [but ignored by the governments of Europe] that Hitler was rearming [against the rules of the ‘French’ Treaty of Versailles – The real cause of Hitler & his reason for going to war]. Then Hitler started shouting about the Sudetenland’s after getting no response after annexing Austria. Europe remained passive and tried to bury its heads in the sand. There were discussions of alarm [Churchill dating back to the beginning of Hitler’s rearming] and appeasement but the controlling power decided to do little to nothing. Despite the protests of German aggression and how to react to it, there was no rear-viewing to point to the cause of Hitler’s mad anger and how that historic factor could be righted. We, Europe knew what Hitler wanted [He had been and was yelling it at the top of his breath] and what was probably coming [for the French] even after [hope] giving him back the Sudetenland’s.
Putin is far more difficult to read. He moves slowly and keeps his cards close to his chest. It seems counterproductive. If Putin were to go to the U.N / send a clear message saying that the situation in Europe had changed so much that it was now a new security issue for Russia and that he intended to re-annex Crimea and Eastern Ukraine up to the East side of the Dnieper River. One month from now, giving all people who did not want to become Russian Ukrainians, to leave. Allowing West Ukrainians 90 days visa free a year to visit relatives in the future. Any resistance will be crushed and any government actions will be met with overwhelming destruction and government centre destruction as punishment. NATO’s border with Russia will not be allowed to be further East than Moscow. That might work to keep things civilized.
Putin’s cards held close to his chest on this fundamental Russian issue is hindering the realisation of the logic and swifter Western resignation of the issue, possibly helped by a U.N vote. The E.U however seems less hostile and inflexible than the U.S & the UK. Perhaps it is the gas or perhaps there is a better view by especially Germany, of the history of the agreement on the formation of the borders after the end of the Soviet era. Either way what Putin wants and how he intends to get to what he wants seems shrouded in deceit and deception, which I do not believe is helping him but is being exploited by the U.S /[uk] to build public opinion for a European sited NATO conflict with Russia. To coin the U.S phrase ‘Sending over lethal-aid’ [From America / with Love]..
There remains the possibility that Putin wants all of Ukraine and Latvia, Estonia & Lithuania and once again Poland is in for a punishment. Primarily Putin is the gasman that wants his bills paid and he is probably intending to keep the gas bills high or sell it all to China!
China considers Americas invasion of Korea to have been an unprovoked attack upon China [‘One China policy’ - The Florida of China] America are still there and North Korea has been punished for not being defeated. North Korea went from modifying scud missiles to extend the 600 mile range and failing to drawings of longer range homemade missiles to suddenly having the latest Russian designs built by the Chinese. America surrounds the world with nearly 300 overseas military bases. America has over 20 Nimitz sized [100,000 ton+] aircraft carriers with around 80 fighters each.
Ironically if Putin had offered the Baltic countries a trade & peace treaty [after 2010] that included a Federation membership with Russian privileges of Russian state investment and free work and education access to Russia. Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania would be building ships for export and rolling in Rubles, all for agreeing not to allow any external country or group to override their own nations constitution. They would be free to also join the E.u so long as the bit about handing supreme power over to the E.u is omitted. Also no foreign military would be accepted in Baltic countries under Russian Federation Membership. This ugly snide NATO move would have been prevented and the Ukraine [Independent sovereign Region] would be one of the Richest countries in Europe by now. The E.u [Empire of the union!] would be being halted soon after.
If Putin moves on only Eastern Ukraine, Germany may stay silent and oppose NATO involvement. That will be the first day of the end of NATO. Cooperation for agreed objectives will be at an impasse for what is the North Atlantic view of what is right and best practice and the German/E.u vision for what is best.
The UK will [as before] be unprepared and out of kilter with the true course of events and on the wrong side of their full unfolding.
While it is true that the end of the Soviet era was very unwisely exploited by malign U.S behaviour. Russia should now be [now that one chicken has come home to roost] treated with sensible fairness and understanding for an equitable long-term solution.
Even though the West should right this wrong [and others] despite other questionable behaviour by Russia, Russia may not share the [potential] attitude of fairness and equity. Putin may have the opposite ambition, one of Federation building and autocratic rule or an allied Federation of like minded selfish Kleptocratic Dictatorships.
It does not matter whether a country is governed by dictators, absolute monarch’s, party elites, Chinese or E.u or democracies, whether theatrical, directed, bought-out or just Stupid, Good should only be judged by a focus and dedication towards raising Standards of Living and the Quality of Life of the People economy of Earth.
Unfortunately our global system is based on the Priority of Acquiring Monetary Profit.
Additionally
National Strategic competative interest was/is further conflicted with other cultural differences that have bread contempt, greed and malign behaviour and intent.
One E.u mistake is to end individual cultural differences instead of, to celebrate and preserve them.
A simple high philosophy of life should be forever improving with a modernist attitude to base-line state of being and ambition. I fear President Putin does not share this last ambition Either.
We could/should be working harmiously together towards making Humanity a tripple planet species with a ring of townships at 1.3AU and beyond with a target population of 70 billion. Now that is what I call profit. We are needlessly developing inferior thechnologies.